Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes and Consumption Patterns: A Systematic Review of Global Evidence

Abstract

Background: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been adopted by more than 50 national and subnational jurisdictions as a fiscal tool to reduce added-sugar intake and curb rising rates of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and dental disease, yet the magnitude of their real-world impact on consumption remains actively contested. Objective: This narrative review synthesizes empirical and modeling evidence on the measured impact of SSB taxes on consumption trends, compares observed effects with simulation-based projections, and proposes a standardized evaluation framework to strengthen causal inference in future jurisdictions considering SSB taxation. Methods: Following SANRA (Scale for the Assessment of Narrative Review Articles) guidelines, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar for publications from January 2014 to August 2024 using terms combining “SSB/soda tax” with “consumption/purchases/sales” and “evaluation/impact/effect.” Of 342 records screened, 29 studies met inclusion criteria and were synthesized thematically; included studies were appraised using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies and AMSTAR-2 for systematic reviews. Results: Excise taxes in the 10 to 20 percent range were consistently associated with reduced purchases of taxed beverages — for example, a 7.6 percent average two-year decline in Mexico and up to a 38 percent decline in year one in Philadelphia — with the largest reductions among lower-income households, alongside partial substitution toward untaxed beverages and, in tiered-levy jurisdictions such as the United Kingdom, industry reformulation. Empirical reductions were consistently smaller than simulation-model projections, and effect sizes varied considerably by tax structure, pass-through rate, and beverage category. Conclusions: Tax structure (specific excise vs. ad valorem), rate magnitude, and the availability of untaxed or reformulated substitutes are key moderators of policy effectiveness. A standardized longitudinal evaluation framework — combining point-of-sale scanner data, income-stratified household purchase panels, and dietary biomarkers — applied consistently across newly adopting jurisdictions would strengthen the evidence base for future SSB tax design.